CF Pachuca vs Toronto FC Preview
Toronto FC hosts CF Pachuca at BMO Field in the final Leagues Cup East 6 group game on August 4 at 9:00 pm. It is a battle for the top spot after both teams confirmed their qualification for the round of 32 on matchday one.
Pachuca are CONCACAF Champions but their performances in the Liga MX have been underwhelming. They have only won a single league game so far and Toronto has not fared much better. However, the Canadian side appears to have turned a leaf in recent weeks. Can Toronto take advantage of Pachuca’s poor form, or will the Mexican talent shine through?
CF Pachuca vs Toronto FC Head-To-Head and Key Stats
Toronto FC has enjoyed a somewhat successful season so far in the MLS. Coach John Herdman’s team is 8th in the Eastern Conference as we reach the business end of the competition. That puts them in a Final Series play-off position, despite being considered the worst team in the league during preseason.
The Reds have experienced a slight bump in form recently after going 10 games without a win. They followed up the victory over Philadelphia Union in July with a loss to Inter Miami before returning to winning ways against bitter rivals Montreal CF. A victory via penalty shootout in their first Leagues Cup game against the New York Red Bulls means they have now won three of their last four.
Pachuca has not experienced the best of starts in the Liga MX. Los Tuzos are 12th in the Apertura after four games, having won one, drawn one, and lost two. They also squeezed past New York on penalties in their last Leagues Cup game, allowing them to progress to the round of 32.
Guillermo Almada led his team to a strong finish last season, making it to the quarterfinals of the Liga MX. Their biggest triumph came in the CONCACAF Champions Cup. They got their hands on the most important trophy in the Americas for a sixth time after defeating Columbus Crew in the final.
Pachuca most recently played the New York Red Bulls in their first Leagues Cup East 6 group game. Los Tuzos were lucky to still be in the game after a frantic first half from New York. The Red Bulls frequently found themselves in the box when attacking and left Pachuca scrambling. Their only saving grace was the poor finishing or heroic saves from the goalkeeper.
New York picked up where they left off in the second half, scoring the opener after 90 seconds. The Red Bulls’ press forced a turnover in the final third and Lewis Morgan found Elias Manoel in the box. Manoel fired his shot off the crossbar, putting them up 1-0.
A defensive error from Kyle Duncan allowed Pachuca through for a rare attack in the 56th minute. An unmarked Salomon Rondon curled his first-time shot low and into the bottom right corner to level the game. Lewis Morgan missed his penalty in the shootout to hand Pachuca the win, who could not believe their luck.
Toronto also played New York in their most recent game. A drab first half finished 0-0 with the best chance coming from a late Jonathan Osorio volley that New York goalkeeper Ryan Meara comfortably caught.
The Red Bulls had the ball in the net in the 51st minute, but Wikelman Carmona drifted offside before he played the ball into Dennis Gjengaar. That sprung some life into the game as play opened up and the action became end-to-end. Meara and Toronto ‘keeper Sean Johnson held firm to keep the game goalless in normal time and it headed to penalties.
Lorenzo Insigne missed the opening penalty for Toronto, chipping his shot onto the crossbar. Johnson saved a potential game-winning penalty from Cory Burke before Jahkeele Marshall-Rutty saw his shot saved in sudden death. Shane O’Neill buried his chance before Johnson stopped his second penalty to win the game for Toronto.
CF Pachuca vs Toronto FC Predictions
Correct score prediction: CF Pachuca 0-1 Toronto FC
This will be a tight game between two sides who are not far apart in quality. Pachuca had an excellent 2023/24 season. They finished seventh in the Apertura and took home the Champions Cup. However, they have not built on that in the Liga MX so far, putting on some disappointing performances in their first four games.
After a derisory run of results, Toronto seems to have finally found its groove again. They went 10 games without a win in all competitions but have turned that round for three wins in their last four. Pachuca may have a slight edge on paper, but they are in poor form and Toronto has the home advantage. We edge towards a Toronto victory for our soccer prediction.
The Reds have two forwards that could still be chopping it up with Europe’s elite. Federico Bernardeschi and Lorenzo Insigne are electric. The Italian attackers have starred for the Reds this season with Bernardeschi receiving his first All-Star call-up in July. The former Juventus man has eight goals and five assists in 23 MLS games in 2024.
Insigne has 10 goals and assists in 18 games this season and both players have been integral to their unlikely Final Series position. They will be the main attacking threat against Pachuca and have the class to put the sword to the CONCACAF champions.
Prince Osei Owusu has also been excellent for Toronto this season. The 6’2” centre-forward has only netted six times in the MLS, but his all-round game makes him so important. His hold-up play and work rate through the middle is what allows the likes of Insigne and Bernardeschi to come into the game. With him leading the line, Toronto can take the competitive edge.
Pachuca has scored just twice in Liga MX so far this season and was lucky to draw level with the Red Bulls in their last game. Only one team in the Apertura scored less than Los Tuzos. It will naturally be harder to score away from home and with their record already poor Toronto can take advantage and steal the win.
CF Pachuca vs Toronto FC Betting Tips
Pachuca opens as the moneyline favourite for this game. Their CONCACAF Champions Cup victory still lives fresh in the minds of the oddsmakers. However, their poor start in the league comes when Toronto seems to be turning a corner. Leagues Cup betting may not have the Reds as favourites, but their strong showings have come at an important time of the season. They have the home advantage here and we like a bet on Toronto to win, worth +175.
Toronto has a trio of strong attackers in Insigne, Bernardeschi, and Osei Owusu. They have 18 goals between them in the MLS this season. Of those three, Bernardeschi has been the most lethal in front of goal. He plays on the right and has a powerful left foot, often cutting in to shoot. Our bookmaker will look favourably on a Bernardeschi player prop bet. Wager on the Italian to have a shot on target in the game.
This match will be tight, and Toronto will not run away with the result. There is value in the draw. Neither side needs a victory, having already qualified for the round of 32. However, that does not mean there is nothing to play for with the group winner receiving a more favourable draw.
Pre-match odds have the draw worth +235, but there may be a few too many stakes at hand to wager confidently. Instead, look at the live betting markets on a draw after the game has kicked off.
The over/under is set at 2.5 goals for this game. Toronto has strong forwards but has often looked toothless in attack this campaign. Two of their last three games have ended with under 2.5 goals. None of Pachuca’s first five games this season have gone over 2.5 goals. Back the under here, worth -110 with our online sportsbook.
CF Pachuca Team News
Israel Luna injured his cruciate ligament last season and will not return until December. There are otherwise no injury or suspension worries for Pachuca. They should field their strongest 11 in the last group stage game.
- Predicted lineup: Moreno, Rodriguez, Cabral, Barreto, Gonzalez, Pedraza, Deossa, O. Gonzalez, Bautista Gutierrez, Idrissi, Rondon.
Toronto FC Team News
Tyrese Spicer has a back injury and won’t return until mid-August. Brandon Servania has been out since injuring his ACL in October 2023. The medical team expect him to return this month, but Sunday could be too soon. Alonso Coello tore his hamstring in a game back in June. He will miss at least another two weeks while he recovers.
- Predicted lineup: Johnson, Laryea, Long, Gomis, Petretta, Bernardeschi, Osorio, Flores, Etienne, Osei Owusu, Insigne.
