New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC Preview
The New York Red Bulls hosts Toronto FC in their first group game of the Leagues Cup on July 27 at 9:00 pm. The New York Red Bulls reached the round of 16 last season before bowing out on penalties to Philadelphia Union.
Toronto has struggled in recent weeks in the MLS and they finished bottom of their group in 2023 without a point. Can The Reds improve their finish this time round or will New York get off to a winning start?
New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC Head-To-Head and Key Stats
The New York Red Bulls and Toronto FC have met 46 times in competitive action. New York has often got the better of Toronto, defeating The Reds 25 times while Toronto has just 10 victories with 11 draws. They last met on June 22 in regular season action.
The Red Bulls ran Toronto ragged on that day, leaving the Red Bull Arena with three points following a 3-0 victory. Elias Manoel opened the scoring in the 29th minute with a powerful strike from outside the box. He blasted the ball into the top right corner. Dennis Gjengaar doubled the host’s lead in the 47th minute when he slid in Wikelman Carmona driven pass across the box. Cameron Harper put the game to bed when he netted New York’s third in the 75th minute.
The Red Bulls most recently stepped onto the pitch on July 20. They faced FC Cincinnati, one of the most impressive teams in the MLS this season. Just Inter Miami and LA Galaxy have accrued more points than Cincy. New York entered the game as underdogs despite the home advantage. They started strongly when Lewis Morgan fired home in the 7th minute. A long ball from New York’s box found Elias Manoel, who broke fast and played in Morgan.
The first half ended with the Red Bulls one up and they didn’t take long to double their lead. Kyle Duncan received the ball outside the area from a headed clearance in the 52nd minute and his finish from range left goalkeeper Roman Celentano rooted to the spot. Morgan secured a brace seven minutes later when he stabbed home Carmona’s header to make it 3-0. Corey Baird got one back for the visitors in the 67th minute to reduce the deficit to two. However, the Red Bulls had already done enough for the victory, winning 3-1.
Toronto also played on July 20 in one of their biggest games of the season. The Reds travelled to Montreal for the second Canadian Classique, having decimated their rivals 5-1 in the reverse fixture. CF Montreal were in good form heading into the game, but Toronto rose to the occasion to boast victories in both derby games in 2024.
Toronto took advantage of Montreal’s poor finishing, giving up possession and finding success on the break. Despite just six attempts compared to L’Impact’s 11, Toronto managed a 1-0 victory on the road. The lone goal of the game came in the 38th minute. Lorenzo Insigne found Richie Laryea at the back post with a cross and the American defender beat the offside trap to tap home. The Reds defended strongly for the rest of the game. They saw out the win and claimed three points for the second time in three games.
New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC Predictions
Correct score prediction: New York Red Bulls 3-0 Toronto FC
The New York Red Bulls are on a decent run in the MLS. They have lost just one of their last 11 games with impressive performances against FC Cincinnati and Toronto FC. New York sits fourth in the East and in much stronger form than The Reds. They should have too much class for Toronto on Saturday. Our soccer prediction is for a New York Red Bulls victory.
New York kept Cincinnati to just four attempts on goal compared to their 19. That is bad news for a team who have scored as few as Toronto with just four teams in the East scoring fewer. They have scored over one goal in just one of their previous 10 games. New York has scored two or more in five of their last seven. That puts them ahead on goals scored and fewer conceded.
In their previous meeting, Toronto had the lion’s share of possession. However, they never took advantage of their time on the ball and struggled to get past the Red Bulls’ low block. In fact, New York has lost the battle for possession in all 10 of their MLS victories this season. They are clinical when going forward and they are experts at soaking up pressure.
Sandro Schwarz’s team frustrates their opponents with their defensive proclivities. Their shape differs depending on the opposition, but Schwarz will always play a low block with a double pivot in the middle. His midfield pairing differs depending on availability, but Daniel Edelman has been a near constant in the starting 11 during this campaign. The 21-year-old’s ability to break up play and tactical mind makes him integral to this side. He will be the key in this game to winning the midfield battle.
Toronto has talent of its own. It is more a case of whether the supporting cast shows up or not. The likes of Italian pair Lorenzo Insigne and Federico Bernardeschi can be electric going forward. Insigne has 10 goal contributions in 2024 and Bernardeschi has 15. They will be the Reds’ main threats in attack and New York must keep them quiet. However, they need the rest of the starting 11 to turn up.
New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC Betting Tips
The New York Red Bulls are clear moneyline favourites for this game. They are in form and Schwarz has put together one of the toughest defences in the league. Toronto has been inconsistent and their opponents on Saturday are four places ahead of them in the MLS. Leagues Cup betting markets have New York as favourites to top their group, worth +100. They can get off to a winning start on their way to the knockouts against Toronto. A bet on the New York Red Bulls to win is worth -147.
Lewis Morgan has been in excellent scoring form for New York this season. He leads their scoring charts with 12 goals in 18 starts, tying him fifth overall in the league. Morgan has three goals in his last three games. We are backing him to find the net against Toronto on Saturday. The striker has frequently been priced favourably in MLS betting markets for a goal and we think a bet on Morgan to score anytime in the game will present good value.
Can’t stop, won’t stop 🤫
Lewis has been named to @MLS Team of the Matchday for the fourth time this season. pic.twitter.com/ZAte61rma9
— New York Red Bulls (@NewYorkRedBulls) July 21, 2024
Over/under betting is set at 2.5 goals for this game. The New York Red Bulls are 50/50 on this line in their last four games while Toronto has seen three or more goals in three of their last four. We lean towards the over here but look at the live betting markets once the game has started. New York has not been consistent enough to make this wage a sure thing.
The New York Red Bulls defence helped them to seven clean sheets in the MLS this season. Only four teams have kept more. Four teams have conceded more goals than Toronto and just eight have scored fewer. We like a bet on both teams to score – no, worth +115 with our online sportsbook. This bet was a winner the last time these sides met in June.
New York Red Bulls Team News
Emil Forsberg is carrying a lower leg injury and will spend at least another two weeks on the sidelines. Roald Mitchell underwent knee surgery in April after an injury in a game with NYRB II. He is likely to miss the rest of the season. Serge Ngoma had a similar surgery and will also miss the rest of the campaign. Peter Stroud rounds out a trio of surgeries following his ankle injury and will miss the rest of 2024.
- Predicted lineup: Coronel, Nealis, Eile, Reyes, Duncan, Edelman, Donkor, Harper, Morgan, Carmona, and Manoel.
Toronto FC Team News
Alonso Coello tore his hamstring at the end of June and coach John Herdman confirmed he will miss 10 to 12 weeks. Brandon Servania is yet to appear in 2024 following an ACL injury at the end of last season. Tyrese Spicer is still carrying a back injury and will be out for at least another two weeks. Deybi Flores and Nickseon Gomis are carrying knocks and are questionable for Saturday.
- Predicted lineup: Johnson, Long, O’Neill, Petretta, Bernardeschi, Thompson, Longstaff, Laryea, Insigne, Osorio, and Owusu.
