Philadelphia Union vs Inter Miami Preview
Inter Miami travel to Subaru Park to face Philadelphia Union on June 15 at 5:30 pm. The Herons are desperate to end their poor run of form as they are without a win in two. The pressure is on as FC Cincinnati closes in on the top spot of the MLS Eastern Conference.
Philadelphia is sitting steadily in eighth place in the Eastern Conference. They are in a play-in position but have hit a poor run of form without a win in three. The Union hopes to stake a stronger claim in the playoffs with a victory over the conference leaders.
Philadelphia Union vs Inter Miami Head-To-head and Key Stats
Miami are the favourites for the MLS Cup, according to our soccer betting odds. However, they hit a small dip in form recently. They were unbeaten in ten league games, heading into their game against Atlanta United on May 29. Atlanta was winless in nine and Miami was expected to waltz through them. The Five Stripes stunned the conference leaders in a convincing 3-1 victory.
Inter Miami vs St. Louis SC was their most recent outing. St. Louis started brightly when Indiana Vassilev found space from a shot on the left side of the six-yard box. Jordi Alba raced in front of the shot for the block in the 13th minute. The resulting corner found its way to Celio Pompeu on the opposite flank. The Brazilian winger drove the ball into the feet of Chris Durkin, who turned and fired to net a wonder strike into the top right corner and put the visitors ahead after 15 minutes.
Miami fought back and ten minutes later found their way back into the game. Alba linked up with his former Barcelona teammate Lionel Messi, firing in a pass to the Argentinian just inside the 18-yard box. He showed his finesse with a left-footed effort, curling it past Roman Burki to level the game. Tata Martino’s team dominated possession for much of the first half but couldn’t turn opportunities into goals.
St. Louis made them pay, taking advantage of a misjudged pass from Tomas Aviles. Eduard Louwen intercepted to start a break in Miami’s final third before Vassilev finished low and hard at the near post on the right side of the six-yard box after 41 minutes. Miami drew when Messi waltzed past two defenders and laid the ball off to Alba on the left. The Spaniard drove the ball into the box, finding Luis Suarez, who fired home into an open net. Alba secured his second assist and the half ended 2-2.
Disaster struck for Messi and co. in the 68th minute when Suarez headed the ball into his net from a corner into the near post. Miami was behind for the third time in the game and needed to find a way back. They hunted for an equalizer and a marauding run from Alba drew them level late in the day. Julian Gressel played the ball over the St. Louis defence, and Alba made no mistake. He found himself one-on-one with Burki and slotted into the bottom left corner. The linesman flagged, for offside but a VAR review determined he had beaten the line fairly and made it 3-3 in the 85th minute. The former Spain international completed a man-of-the-match performance, but it was a disappointing result for the Herons against a weaker side.
Philadelphia Union extended their winless run to three at Subaru Park after a frantic 10 minutes in the second half. The game was off to a flyer right from kick-off. Philadelphia took the centre kick but a quick break from Montreal CF saw Ruan released down the right flank. He passed it to Dominik Yankov, who played in Sunisi Ibrahim. The Nigerian forward set himself and hit the ball with his first touch, curling it around Oliver Semmle to open the scoring after 50 seconds. Philadelphia switched on fast and drove forward to hunt for an equalizer. Mikael Uhre and Jose Martinez forced excellent saves from Sebastian Breza in the seventh minute.
The Union thought they had drawn level in the 14th minute when Daniel Gazdag smartly finished Jack McGlynn’s low-driven cross. However, he had drifted offside, and the score remained 1-0. Neither side gained real momentum following the early opener and most shots came from range. The most action came in the 41st minute. Jordan Lassiter flew into a challenge against Martinez and the Colombian screamed in pain as he went down. Despite originally receiving a yellow card, a VAR review upgraded it to a red, ruling serious foul play by Lassiter. Montreal headed into the second half, a goal up but a man down.
The Union flew out of the blocks and exploited their one-man advantage. McGlynn found Uhre with a pinpoint through ball. His shot ricocheted off the keeper before Gazdag pounced on the ball and was taken down by Breza to draw a penalty. He fired home to draw Philly level in the 56th minute.
Just two minutes later, the hosts turned the game on its head. Uhre poked home from 10 yards after a through ball from Quinn Sullivan to put Philadelphia 2-1 up. However, there was more drama in the 63rd minute. VAR upgraded another yellow, this time for Philly. Jack Elliott led with his studs when tackling Raheem Edwards and both sides were down to 10 men.
They lifted the resulting free-kick into the box in the 66th minute. Joaquin Sosa’s header hit the post and bounced along the goal line before being bundled in by Samuel Petite. Three goals and a red card inside 10 minutes meant the scores were level at 2-2. Philadelphia had the Lion’s share of possession in the remaining 25 minutes but could not find an opening and the game ended as a draw.
These sides last met in the semifinals of the Leagues Cup in August 2023. The Herons dismantled Philadelphia in a 4-1 mauling. Goals from Josef Martinez, Messi, Alba, and David Ruiz helped Miami to the final. However, The Union recorded the same scoreline over Miami when they met in the league that season. Philadelphia has beaten the Floridians five times in their ten meetings while Miami has three victories.
Philadelphia Union vs Inter Miami Prediction
Correct Score Prediction: Philadelphia Union 1-1 Inter Miami
Our soccer prediction is for a tie in this game. Philadelphia is winless in three and Miami is without a victory in two. However, Philly has recorded three straight draws in that run. They finished with back-to-back goalless ties with Toronto and Charlotte before the 2-2 with Montreal. They have a sturdy defence and an adept attack.
What is important to note is that Inter Miami will be without Matias Rojas, Luis Suarez, and Lionel Messi. Paraguay, Uruguay, and Argentina have called up the trio for Copa America 2024. Messi and Suarez’s goal contributions cannot be overstated, but Rojas has also been in fine form since joining in April. The attacking midfielder has four goals and assists in eight games. Miami will have a significantly weaker offence without the South Americans.
🇦🇷 World Cup Champions, led by captain Leo Messi, are training at the Florida Blue Training Center! 🏆
🔗 https://t.co/OMSPGnukVH pic.twitter.com/SEL7ZSfRoY
— Inter Miami CF (@InterMiamiCF) June 5, 2024
Despite those two goalless draws, Philadelphia has not struggled to score this season. Miami and the New York Red Bulls are the only teams to have scored more in the Eastern Conference. Their 27 goals prove that they have the firepower. Miami’s defence is statistically among the worst despite topping the conference. They have conceded 27 goals, only three teams in the East have a worse record.
Miami will struggle without Messi and Suarez at a point in the season when they are desperate for him. However, they still have tools to grind out results. The likes of Busquets, Gressel, and Alba can feed Campana. They have all shown their playmaking abilities with a handful of assists. The quality of their team outshines most in the league. Their form will play a part but they have enough to gain a point.
Philadelphia Union vs Inter Miami Betting Picks
Only one team in the league has more draws than Philadelphia this season. Their eight is the most in the EC. A weaker Miami team will have to battle at Subaru Park, but they will earn a point. Our online sportsbook prices a draw at 3/1.
Despite our prediction, a bet on Miami to win is worth 13/5. Philadelphia is a tough team to beat, but their form is no better than Miami’s. The Herons are top of the conference for a reason and can pull off the upset here. You can cover yourself by wagering on a Tie No Bet. Inter Miami is 13/8 for this market and you will get your money back if the game finishes tied.
Anyone looking at the over/under for this fixture should take note. It is set at 3.5 for this fixture, which we think is high, especially for a team who have conceded so few in Philadelphia. Miami has scored a lot of goals in the MLS, but they are without two of their best attackers, Messi and Suarez. It’s difficult to imagine Miami continuing to score as freely as they have been. We like the under on this pick, priced at 8/13.
Off the back of that, Miami will rely heavily on Campana from now on. Without Suarez and Messi’s goals, the Ecuadorian will be the main man in attack. He has been in good form this season and we are backing him to score again here. He is 5/2 to score anytime or 15/2 to score the first goal.
Philadelphia Union Team News
Philadelphia will be without four of their players through Copa America call-ups. Jesus Bueno and Jose Andres Martinez will travel with Venezuela, Damian Lowe with Jamaica, and Jamir Berdecio with Bolivia. Goalkeeper Andre Blake is still on the sideline with a knee injury sustained in May. Jack Elliott will miss the game through suspension following his red card against Montreal.
- Expected lineup: Semmle, Wagner, Glesnes, Harriel, Mbaizo, Flach, Bedoya, Sullivan, McGlynn, Uhre, Carranza
Inter Miami Team News
Lionel Messi, Luis Suarez, and Matias Rojas are with Argentina, Uruguay, and Paraguay for Copa America and will not feature. Diego Gomez has suffered a setback in his ankle injury recovery and will not play in this fixture. Facundo Faras is still out through his ACL injury, as is Nicolas Freire. Robbie Robinson is also nursing his calf injury and will not make the game.
- Expected lineup: Callender, Alba, Kryvtsov, Aviles, Weigandt, Gressel, Busquets, Cremaschi, Afonso, Taylor, Campana
