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CF Montreal vs Toronto FC Preview
The second Canadian Classique of the season kicks off at 7:30 pm on July 20 when CF Montreal welcomes Toronto FC to Saputo Stadium. Toronto embarrassed their rivals in the last derby game with a 5-1 destruction.
Montreal has picked up their form in their last five games and a win for Laurent Courtois’ team would see them leapfrog Toronto. The Reds have been in terrible form since defeating Montreal in May. Can they turn around their season or will Montreal gain a measure of revenge?
CF Montreal vs Toronto FC Head-To-Head and Key Stats
Montreal and Toronto share arguably the most heated rivalry in the MLS. The Canadian Classique, the 401 Derby, or the Two Solitudes Derby, fans and players of both sides pick this game out on the calendar before the season has started. They have met 43 times in the league and share the spoils with 19 wins a piece and five draws.
The last Canadian Classique took place on May 19. Toronto decimated Montreal in a 5-1 victory. Matthew Longstaff set the tone when he tapped into an open net in the sixth minute following Tyrese Spicer’s ball across the box. Federico Bernardeschi doubled the lead when he cut in on his left foot inside the box and fired the ball into the top left corner.
Things went from bad to worse in the 19th minute when a mix-up at the back from Montreal allowed Prince Osei Owusu to tap in from inside the six-yard box. The first half ended with Toronto 3-0 and the game was as good as over. Bernardeschi scored in the 58th and 59th minute to secure his hat-trick before Sunusi Ibrahim registered a consolation goal in the 67th. It was the first time a team in the Canadian Classique scored five goals in seven years.
Toronto was not as lucky when they faced Inter Miami during the week. They travelled to face the league leaders, having won just once in the league since their Canadian Classique triumph. The Reds’ backline was caught napping in the 43rd minute when Federico Redondo’s long ball drifted over their heads into the path of Diego Gomez. He found the net to give Miami the lead.
Redondo turned goalscorer in the second half, scoring a six-minute brace. His glancing header from a Julian Gressel free-kick doubled their lead in the 53rd minute before he tapped in from Gomez’s ball across the box. Derrick Etienne Jr. scored in the 79th minute, but the damage was done and Toronto fell to their seventh defeat in eight league games. Despite their form, they sit in the play-in places, six points behind Orlando City.
There was plenty of late drama in the Red Bull Arena when Montreal faced New York Red Bulls on Wednesday night. Wikelman Carmona opened the scoring for New York in the 18th minute, but a quiet bout followed with few chances for either side. Montreal finally breathed life into the game when Josef Martinez scored an equalizer in the 67th minute. Mathieu Choiniere had a nightmare when an in-swinging corner ricocheted off of his leg and rolled into his own net, handing New York the lead once again.
Drama struck immediately after the restart when Montreal went on the attack and Sean Nealis dragged down Jules-Anthony Vilsaint in the penalty box. He received a red card following a VAR review and Martinez buried his penalty in the 81st minute, ending the game 2-2 with the points shared. Montreal sits in ninth place, level on points with Toronto.
CF Montreal vs Toronto FC Prediction
Correct score prediction: Montreal 3-1 Toronto
The Canadian Classique is historically a high-scoring affair. Both sides are hungry to bring home a win in the derby with just one draw in the last seven years and five overall. Our soccer prediction is for a Montreal Victory in the second Canadian Classique of the season.
Toronto has been extremely poor since their last run-in with Montreal with a single win from 11 league games. Montreal has been in decent form recently, losing once in five games with two wins and two draws. L’Impact has the home advantage on Saturday and will be out for revenge following their humiliation in May.
Toronto and Montreal’s statistics in the MLS are extremely similar. Both teams have 27 points, identical goal differences, and near-identical goals for and against. While on paper they look tough to separate, Toronto’s form is the kicker. Their position in the form table is derisory. Only the San Jose Earthquakes have performed worse than them in the last 10 games and they have accrued just 14 points this season, the lowest in the MLS.
Toronto has shown nothing to make us think they are clawing their way out of that, and Montreal will smell the blood in the water on their way to a win. Montreal has been extremely strong at home this season. Courtois’ side has not lost in 13 of their 15 games at Stadium Saputo.
Montreal is growing in confidence and finding their groove in attack. They have scored eight goals in their last four games and with Josef Martinez back to his best after his injury, they have their talisman back up top. He scored a brace in their last game and will be the focal point of their attack on Saturday.
Toronto has conceded 10 goals in their last four games. With a fully fit Martinez up top and the playmaking of Ariel Lassiter next to him, Toronto’s defence will struggle to deal with L’Impact’s attacking quality.
Toronto will lose the battle for possession in this game and will settle for chances on the counter. Bernardeschi and Lorenzo Insigne provide pace on the wing for the Reds. Laurent Courtois’ team will have to be wary of the threat they pose going forward. Bernardeschi is Toronto’s top scorer in 2024 and scored in the reverse fixture back in May. Any success in coach John Herdman’s attack will come through their Italian talisman.
CF Montreal vs Toronto FC Betting Tips
Montreal enters this game as the home favourite. They have only lost twice at Saputo Stadium this season. The last time a Canadian Classique game ended with points shared was in June 2017 and after the high-scoring affair in May, we expect a winner once again. Toronto has been in terrible form and Laurent Courtois’ team is in prime position to leapfrog their rivals on Saturday. We like a bet on Montreal to win at plus money, worth +103.
There are plenty of goals in this game and there have been over 2.5 in four of their last five meetings. That line has also hit the over in Toronto’s last nine games. A wager on both teams to score has also hit in four of the last five Canadian Classiques. The over/under is set at 2.5 and we are taking the over, worth -152. You can combine all three combinations for Montreal to win, over 2.5 goals, and for both teams to score in a same game parlay worth +260 at our online sportsbook.
Toronto and Montreal have two of the worst disciplinary records in the MLS. The Reds have accrued 70 cards, the third highest in the league, and L’Impact has 65, the fifth highest. Toronto centre-back Kevin Long has received more cards than any player in their squad with eight yellows and a red. MLS betting markets will offer strong odds on cards and we like a wager on Long to receive his 10th of the season. It could be beneficial to keep an eye on the live betting markets for cards, keeping track of player fouls and pouncing on cautions in play.
52' | Yellow shown to Kevin Long 🟨
— Toronto FC (@TorontoFC) June 30, 2024
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CF Montreal Team News
Lassi Lappaleinen missed the last two matches through a groin injury. He is back in training and available for Saturday. There are no other major injuries or suspensions for Montreal.
- Predicted lineup: Sirois, Alvarez, Campbell, Waterman, Piette, Lassiter, Ruan, Saliba, Choiniere, Coccaro, Martinez.
Toronto FC Team News
Alonso Coello went off against New York in June with a hamstring injury and is still a couple of weeks away from a return. Tyrese Spicer’s back injury was more serious than first thought and coach John Herdman confirmed he will miss at least another two weeks. Brandon Servania tore his ACL in January and will miss the remainder of the season.
- Predicted lineup: Johnson, Petretta, Long, Gomis, Laryea, Etienne, Flores, Longstaff, Bernardeschi, Osorio, Insigne.
