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Argentina vs Ecuador Preview
Copa America 2024 favourites Argentina continue their journey in the quarterfinal meeting with Ecuador on July 5 at 9:00 pm. Argentina has won all their games so far without conceding a goal.
Ecuador comes in after scraping through qualification in Group B. Can La Tri cause the upset at NRG Stadium or will Argentina continue their charge to the Copa America trophy?
Argentina vs Ecuador Head-To-Head and Key Stats
Argentina and Ecuador have met 40 times previous to their upcoming fixture. The World Cup holders have bragging rights over their opponents, winning 24 matches, losing five, and 11 draws. They last met during their warmup games for the Copa America in June.
Argentina saw out a low-key affair with a 1-0 victory at Soldier Field. Both teams were not playing at 100%, opting not to risk injury before Copa America, but Argentina dominated. They finished with 65% possession and 632 passes to Ecuador’s 343. They also triumphed with greater attacking play, registering 11 shots, four on target. Angel Di Maria netted the only goal of the game in the 40th minute.
Both teams have clashed frequently in competitive action over the years. They met in the World Cup qualifying action in September 2023. Lionel Messi struck for another 1-0 victory for La Albiceleste. Ecuador has failed to beat Messi and co. in their last seven meetings, losing six and drawing one.
Lionel Scaloni’s team’s most recent game was their final Group A fixture of Copa America 2024 against Peru. They had already secured qualification to the quarterfinals following wins in their first two fixtures over Canada and Chile. There was no room for complacency with Argentina wanting to top the group.
It was yet another dominant performance from the Copa America favourites. Lautaro Martinez struck twice in the second half to secure a 2-0 victory for his team. Peru struggled to even get near their opponents. Argentina finished with 75% possession with 627 passes while Peru managed just 209.
Argentina finished top of Group A with nine points. They scored five goals and conceded none. Latauro Martinez finished with four goals and is currently the top goalscorer in the competition.
Elsewhere, Ecuador survived a penalty scare at the death to see out a 0-0 draw with Mexico and secure qualification through Group B in second place. Felix Sanchez’s men lost their opening game of the competition against Venezuela despite leading for much of the contest. An Enner Valencia red card in the 22nd minute gave Venezuela the numbers advantage, and they used it on their way to a 2-1 victory.
A 3-1 victory over Jamaica followed and La Tri knew a draw would guarantee them qualification in their game against Mexico. They had a superior goal difference and scored more than their opponents. Mexico dominated the game with 20 shots and 60% possession but could not find a way through. Ecuador held their breath for much of the 100 minutes played following 10 minutes of injury time and an overturned Mexico penalty. They scraped by through the skin of their teeth and secured their place in the knockout rounds.
Ecuador finished second in their group with four goals and only two conceded. They had four different goalscorers in those games with Enner Valencia, Kendry Paez, Piero Hincapie, and Alan Minda sharing the spoils.
Argentina vs Ecuador Prediction
Correct score prediction: Argentina 2-0 Ecuador
Ecuador rode their luck against Mexico to reach the quarterfinals, but their luck will be up at the NRG Stadium. Argentina has been excellent in the group stages and is the only team in the tournament yet to concede a goal. They dominated each of their first three fixtures and will do the same again here. Our Copa America prediction is for yet another dominant victory for La Albiceleste.
Felix Sanchez’s team know they were lucky against Mexico. The two-time Copa America winners pummelled Ecuador’s defence for 100 minutes, but poor finishing cost them. Argentina will not afford them those same let-offs. They have a string of clinical finishers, including Messi, Martinez, Di Maria, and Julian Alvarez. Lionel Scaloni’s team will dominate the ball as Mexico did but with more ruthless finishing. Martinez leads the Copa America 2024 scoring charts with four goals in the competition so far and he can punish Ecuador.
Argentina has also been exceptional in defence. Premier League pair Lisandro Martinez and Christian Romero have formed a formidable partnership at centre-back. They have conceded just four goals in their 11 games playing together for their nation. Eight of those games have ended with clean sheets for the pair. Argentina is the only team in the tournament yet to concede a goal and they can continue that record in Houston.
There is also a clear experience differential between these teams. Argentina has a great balance of elder statesmen like Messi, Di Maria and Tagliafico, with fresher stars like Alvarez and Enzo Fernandez. Ecuador has a much younger team with the likes of Jeremy Sarmiento, Moises Caicedo, Willian Pacho, and Kendry Paez all aged between 17 and 22. Argentina has far more experience in the latter stages of major tournaments than their opponents, which will serve them well through to the semifinals.
Ecuador must focus on defensive stability in this game. They will give up possession to Argentina and be under heavy pressure throughout. Piero Hincapie is their defensive talisman. He won the Bundesliga title with Bayer Leverkusen last season and will marshal the back line.
Moises Caicedo will also take on extra defensive stability in this game from midfield. However, the Chelsea man’s temperament remains a worry. He received 12 yellow cards in the Premier League last season and was shown one in the Copa America 2024 group stages. The 22-year-old must keep a cool head here to offer protection in front of the back line.
They do have flair when going forward. Jeremy Sarmiento and Kendry Paez have excellent technique and pace alongside it. This meshes well with Felix Sanchez’s likely game plan. He will want his side to soak up pressure before hitting Argentina on the break. Pacey wide men can allow Ecuador to find joy when counter-attacking with Argentina committing men forwards.
Argentina vs Ecuador Betting Picks
A moneyline bet on Argentina is worth -208. They are overwhelming favourites for this game. Ecuador has never reached beyond the quarterfinals in Copa America. If you place a moneyline wager, a bet on Argentina is the way to go. They have a better squad, manager, and disparate experience advantage in this game.
Argentina has not conceded a goal in this tournament. They have statistically the best defence in Copa America 2024 and can continue that form against Ecuador. Felix Sanchez’s side scored three against Jamaica, the poorest team in the competition, and once in their defeat to Venezuela, a team they were fancied to beat comfortably. Mexico is the strongest side they have played so far, and they rarely threatened their goal in a goalless draw. Argentina to win to nil is worth +101 with our online sportsbook.
Lautaro Martinez has enjoyed an excellent campaign in the competition and is worth +140 to score against Ecuador. The Inter Milan striker has found the net four times in three games and is the favourite to finish as the top goalscorer in the Copa America betting markets. Lionel Messi is yet to score in the competition. However, he has scored seven goals against Ecuador throughout his international career. Bolivia is the only side he has scored against more in an Argentina shirt. He is plus +120 to score his first goal of Copa America 2024 here.
#SelecciónMayor GOAT 🐐 pic.twitter.com/L81PMJHWpC
— 🇦🇷 Selección Argentina ⭐⭐⭐ (@Argentina) July 3, 2024
Argentina won their games 2-0, 1-0 and 1-0 in the group stages. Knockout football is more ruthless and Ecuador, while playing a counterattacking style, will have to commit men forward. Argentina can put three past them if they are on it and their defensive stability means they are not likely to concede. Online betting has Argentina winning 1-0, 2-0 or 3-0 worth +120.
There will be opportunities in live betting markets for this game. The card markets can go wild in matches between South American sides. There have been 21 yellow cards in the previous five meetings between these teams. Moises Caicedo has received two yellow cards in the last three. We think he could receive another here.
Argentina Team News
Argentina rested several players in their most recent fixture, with qualification already secured. The likes of Mac Allister, Romero, and Martinez will return. Lautaro Martinez will keep his place in the team after his fine start to Copa America 2024. Messi missed the final group game with a hamstring injury but has returned to full training and will start.
- Predicted lineup: E. Martinez, Molina, Romero, L. Martinez, Tagliafico, Di Maria, De Paul, Mac Allister, Messi, La. Martinez, and Alvarez.
Ecuador Team News
Enner Valencia returned from suspension in his last game and will keep his place. He will need to keep a cool head when Argentina dominate possession. There are no injury worries for La Tri and they will field a full-strength side in the quarterfinal.
- Predicted lineup: Dominguez, Preciado, Torres, Pacho, Hincapie, Franco, Caicedo, Yeboah, Paez, Sarmiento, and Valencia.
