This article is also available in French.
Venezuela vs Canada Preview
Canada enters their first ever Copa America quarterfinal against Venezuela on July 5 with kick-off scheduled for 8:00 pm. Les Rouges confirmed the continuation of their run in the competition with a second-place finish in Group A.
Venezuela enjoyed a surprising campaign in Group B, topping a tough group. They scored six goals across three games only conceding one. A win for either side will confirm their place in the semifinal for the first time in their history.
Venezuela vs Canada Head-To-Head and Key Stats
Canada qualified for Copa America in March, defeating Trinidad & Tobago in the CONCACAF Nations League play-off round. The victory meant Les Rouges would enter Copa America for the first time in their history, cementing their ‘golden generation’ moniker.
They opened the tournament against the defending champions, Argentina. Canada fell to defeat but looked strong and there were plenty of positives to take from their performance. That helped inform their second group game against Peru. A 1-0 win put them in second place and in control of their destiny.
Jesse Marsch’s side continued their dream run in the competition when they secured qualification for the quarterfinals against Chile last Saturday. Canada entered the game knowing that a win would guarantee qualification. A draw would be good enough, provided Peru didn’t beat the tournament favourite Argentina. Chile needed a victory. The game was nervy, with both sides rarely threatening in the first half.
However, Canada received a boost when Chile went down to 10 men after 27 minutes. Fullback Gabriel Suazo received a second yellow card when he brought down Richie Laryea. The first half ended goalless with Les Rouges boasting the best chances of the half. Chile sent men forward in the second half, but the man advantage took its toll. Canada remained strong at the back and saw out a 0-0 draw, securing their place in the quarterfinals following Peru’s loss to Argentina.
Venezuela enjoyed a perfect run in Group B. Somos Tricolor had one of the tougher groups in Copa America, needing results against Mexico, Ecuador, and Jamaica. They began with a dominant 2-1 victory over Ecuador, who played with 10 men for the best part of 70 minutes following Enner Valencia’s sending-off. Fernando Batista’s side faced a daunting task in their second fixture against Mexico. Despite Mexico dominating the ball with 62% possession and 18 shots to 10, Venezuela snatched a 1-0 win through Salomon Rondon’s penalty.
They entered their last game against Jamaica with qualification already secured. Batista made four changes to the side that beat Mexico, but a professional performance was required. They did just that, dominating the Reggae Boyz to finish with a 3-0 win. Goals from Eduard Bello, Rondon, and Eric Ramirez meant Venezuela finished atop Group B with nine points, scoring six goals and conceding just once.
This will be the first time these sides have met in 14 years, having played one another twice in history. They shared the spoils on the day in a 1-1 draw with the previous fixture also finishing in a draw at 2-2. Thomas Rincon is the only player who appeared in their previous meeting that could appear here, demonstrating a new generation of soccer for both nations.
Venezuela vs Canada Prediction
Correct score prediction: Venezuela 1-0 Canada
This is a tight game between two sides who are perhaps surprise entrants in the quarterfinals. Canada edged past Peru and Chile and put in a brave performance against the Copa America favourites, Argentina. Venezuela swept their group against powerful opposition.
Do not ignore these results. They have three wins against opponents who are arguably all stronger than Canada. Man for man, Canada may have more quality in their squad, but Batista has his side well-drilled. They also have more experience in this tournament and will be better prepared. Our Copa America prediction is for a 1-0 Venezuela victory.
Both sides have been strong defensively at Copa America in 2024. Canada has conceded twice and Venezuela just once. Les Rouges kept Argentina out for the first half and made life difficult for Les Albiceleste. Lionel Messi praised Marsch’s side after the clash for their resilience and physicality. He admitted the Canadians marked him out of the game for 45 minutes and they had to adapt. They did not concede another goal for the rest of their group games. Goalkeeper Maxime Crepeau has also played excellently throughout the competition.
Providing a steady presence at the back, Maxime Crépeau takes home tonight’s @GatoradeCanada Performance of the Match! 🧤#CANMNT #CopaAmerica pic.twitter.com/1N4Z9whgDp
— CANMNT (@CANMNT_Official) June 30, 2024
Venezuela conceded to Ecuador in their opener and then kept clean sheets for their last two games, despite being under significant pressure from Mexico. They are hard to separate, but there are some comparisons we can draw with how they have fared with their styles so far.
Marsch and Batista play an intense, pressing style when out of possession. Canada focuses on compacting the centre of the pitch and forcing the opposition to funnel the ball into wide areas. This is when they employ their press. The pace of Alphonso Davies and Liam Millar means they are an immediate threat in those areas when they win the ball back.
Batista centres his style of play on the defensive tenacity of Jose Martinez and Yangel Herrera in a double pivot. Canada has faced issues when teams match up or outnumber them in midfield. Their build-up play has been poor, and they have sloppily given away possession in the middle. Martinez and Herrera have been a far more impressive pairing than Ismael Kone and Stephen Eustaquio and this is where the game is won for Venezuela.
Canada’s high line has been exposed by pacy wingers. Venezuela has two in Bello and Yeferson Soteldo. They will feel more comfortable in wide areas than Les Rouge’s previous opponents and can hurt them there. Salomon Rondon is in the form of his career leading the line for his nation and with Soteldo and Bello either side of him will have plenty of chances to add to his two goals in the tournament.
Canada’s biggest strength is in its forward line. Davies has slowly grown into his role as a left winger and Jonathan David’s best soccer has been in a free role as a 10. He will drop back to receive the ball to combat Canada’s midfield struggle. This can confuse the Venezuela defence, drawing them out of their position. David will play a key role in Canada’s chances in this game.
Venezuela vs Canada Betting Picks
The odds are tight for this game, and the moneyline is at plus money for both sides. Canada is the slight favourite, but they have fine margins at +180 to +185. We like a bet on Venezuela. However, the moneyline is a risk in this fixture, with our online sportsbook barely separating two in-form teams.
With this game being so tight, a tie-no-bet wager instead of a straight moneyline punt is safer. This means if the game is a tie after 90 minutes, your bet is a push. A bet on Canada is worth -118 and -114 on Venezuela, but we are sticking with our prediction for a Venezuela win.
The over/under is set at 2.5 goals. The over has hit in two of Venezuela’s three group games while the under has hit in all three of Canada’s. However, Venezuela’s stats are slightly misleading. They scored three against a Jamaica side that was arguably the weakest in the tournament. Their 2-1 victory over Ecuador has the asterisk of a red card alongside it. Canada is stronger than Jamaica and has a better temperament than Ecuador. This is also knockout soccer, meaning we will see a far less open game. We are taking the over here at -164 in the Copa America betting markets.
Salomon Rondon has been in excellent form under Batista and has two goals in Copa America 2024. He is a quality option as a line leader and will be Venezuela’s main goal threat here. As a set-piece taker, he has several opportunities to find the net. We like a bet on the 34-year-old to score anytime. Copa America odds have him at +2500 to finish as the top scorer in the competition and he can improve his chances here.
Cerrando el grupo con puntaje ideal 🤩 pic.twitter.com/NHedw9ipt8
— CONMEBOL Copa América™️ (@CopaAmerica) July 1, 2024
Canada Team News
Jesse Marsch has made changes in every game so far and we are expecting the same here. The American will want to attack the wings with pace and Alphonso Davies will step into the frontline after dropping to left back against Chile. He rested Ismael Kone in favour of Jonathan Osorio there. Kone will step back in for more aggression in the press and height against the hulking Rondon when defending.
- Predicted Lineup: Crepeau, Johnston, Bombito, Cornelius, Laryea, Kone, Eustaquio, Millar, David, Davies, Larin.
Venezuela Team News
Batista changed four players in their final group game against Jamaica and will return to a full-strength team here. Soteldo will return to the side after being rested in favour of Darwin Machís. Jefferson Savarino, Jon Aramburu and Nahuel Ferraresi will also return to the starting 11.
- Predicted Lineup: Romo, Aramburu, Ferraresi, Osorio, Navarro, Martinez, Herrera, Bello, Savarino, Soteldo, Rondon.
