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Paraguay vs Brazil Preview
Brazil enters their second group game of Copa America 2024 against Paraguay on June 29 at 7:00 pm. Both teams are searching for their first win of the tournament following disappointing starts to their campaigns.
Selecao could only manage a goalless draw in their opener against Costa Rica and Paraguay fell to a 2-1 defeat at the hands of Colombia in their group opener. Can Paraguay claim their first points of the competition, or will Brazil finally show their class?
Paraguay vs Brazil Head-To-Head and Key Stats
These teams have met 83 times in their history, frequently clashing in competitive action. Brazil holds bragging rights, winning 51 to Paraguay’s 13 with 19 draws. They last met in a World Cup qualifying match in February 2022.
Brazil was in complete control on that day in Estádio Mineirão. Raphinha struck first in the 28th minute and the Barcelona winger’s goal put Selecao 1-0 up at halftime. They continued to dominate the ball and Phillipe Coutinho doubled their lead in the 68th minute. Goals from Antony and Rodrygo in the final five minutes saw the hosts run out deserved 4-0 winners. They finished with 77% possession and an incredible 726 passes, with a 92% completion rate.
Dorival Júnior’s team is among the favourites to win Copa America 2024. They looked impressive in March with a 1-0 victory over England and a 3-3 draw with Spain in a pair of away friendly matches. Brazil followed up with a 3-2 victory over Mexico and a 1-1 draw with the USA in their warmup games. They did enough to beat the Stars and Stripes but fell short.
The five-time World Cup winners were laboured in their Copa America opener against Costa Rica. They entered the game as overwhelming favourites, and fans expected a convincing victory. Júnior ’s team had not failed to beat Los Ticos in 64 years, winning their last nine meetings.
Brazil started without a recognized striker in their 11 and Ballon d’Or prospect, Vinicius Junior, led the line. However, the absence of a natural finisher came back to bite the Copa America hopefuls. Their frontline frequently found themselves in the box but could not finish their chances.
Marquinhos had the ball in the back of the net when he bundled in Vinicius Junior’s header from an in-swinging free-kick. However, the Real Madrid winger strayed offside, and VAR struck off the goal. Lucas Paqueta came close from range when his strike bounced off the post. That was as good as it got for Selecao. The game finished goalless. Even though Brazil dominated the ball, they only managed three shots on target from 19 attempts.
Colombia edged out Paraguay in their opener on Monday. Los Guaraníes could not find their feet in the game and frequently gave away possession, allowing Colombia to dominate the ball.
Fullback Daniel Munoz made a marauding run into the box after 32 minutes to nod in James Rodriguez’s cross and put Nestor Lorenzo’s team ahead. Rodriguez was the playmaker once again 10 minutes later when Jefferson Lerma rose above his marker to head in his in-swinging free-kick and double their lead.
Julio Enciso got one back for Paraguay in the 69th minute, but they failed to capitalize on any momentum. Colombia won 2-1 and despite the shooting stats being even, Paraguay never looked dangerous going forward.
Paraguay vs Brazil Prediction
Correct score prediction: Paraguay 0-2 Brazil
Brazil dominated in their game against Costa Rica and will do the same in this fixture. Paraguay will play a low-block, similar to Los Ticos, but Brazil will have learned from their mistakes and find a way through in their second time of asking. Our Copa America prediction is a 2-0 victory for Brazil.
Dorival Júnior is known for his expansive style of play. Instead of committing to one philosophy, he adapts based on the tools at his disposal and the opponent’s style. That last part is important here. Although Paraguay will play more defensively than usual, they will fancy themselves going forward more than Costa Rica did. They have far stronger attacking options with Julio Enciso and Miguel Almiron. Brazil will welcome a more open opposition defence in that respect and find openings more easily.
We also expect the Brazil coach to make changes in this game. The absence of a recognized number 9 in their last game cost them going forward. Vinicius Junior prefers running at players on the flank before either cutting in and shooting or playing a ball into the box.
Dorival Júnior may call on Endrick sooner than expected. He stressed patience with the teenage star following the draw on Monday, but there is a clear need for a finisher. With him starting up front and Vinicius reverting to his natural position on the left, Selecao will have a more fluid attack.
The name is Endrick, nice to meet you 😉 pic.twitter.com/AYbcjbX2sZ
— CONMEBOL Copa América™️ ENG (@copaamerica_ENG) June 24, 2024
Paraguay frequently lost the battle in midfield in their Copa America opener. Colombia’s three-man midfield boxed them in and they constantly lost the ball when pressed. Brazil will exploit this. Joao Gomez is excellent at breaking down the opposition tempo in midfield. This will allow Bruno Guimaraes to push further forward and find fast breaks into the final third while the Los Guaraníes defence is disorganized.
Paraguay has some strong attacking options with Enciso and Almiron, but Brazil has an excellent defence. Marquinhos and Eder Militao have been two of the best centre-backs in Europe over the last five years. They will push high with Marquinhos drifting into midfield to help break up play alongside Gomez, Guimaraes, and Douglas Luiz. The tactical nous of the two defenders paired with their pace will make it hard for Paraguay to get in behind. They limited Costa Rica to just two shots and will keep another clean sheet here.
Paraguay vs Brazil Betting Tips
Despite an early slip-up, Brazil is still one of the top favourites for the competition, according to the Copa America odds. They have won the competition more times than any other nation this century and boast one of the most talented squads in the world. They are heavy favourites to win this game and can finally kick off a run to the final. A bet on Brazil is worth -263.
We think there are better ways to back the favourites. Selecao only conceded two goals in the group stages of Copa America in 2021. They also won the competition in 2019 and conceded just once in their entire run. They have the strongest defence in the tournament on paper and can make it back-to-back clean sheets here. Brazil to win to nil is worth +105 with our online sportsbook.
They are just as strong in attack as they are in defence. Vinicius Junior, Rodrygo, and Endrick all enjoyed double-figure goalscoring campaigns with their clubs last season. We think Dorival Júnior will tweak his starting lineup in this game and have Endrick start as the lone striker.
He scored in three of four games for his nation in 2024 in the build-up to Copa America and we are backing him to score at +140. However, it would be beneficial to wait until they release the lineups to make this bet or look at the live betting markets. All of his goals for Brazil this year have come from the bench, and he can net his fourth should he enter the game late against Paraguay.
We are predicting a 2-0 victory for Brazil, but their finishing has been inconsistent. Brazil will find a way through, but the margin of victory is tough to call. We like a bet on Brazil to win 1-0, 2-0 or 3-0 at +160 for anyone betting on Copa America.
Lucas Paquetá hizo vibrar el palo 😳 pic.twitter.com/A0zionbEZa
— CONMEBOL Copa América™️ (@CopaAmerica) June 25, 2024
Brazil Copa America Squad, Team News and Predicted Lineup
Brazil has a clean bill of health following their game against Costa Rica. Dorival Júnior is likely to make changes to his side following their disappointing draw in their opener. The defence and midfield are likely to remain the same, but we expect a tactical change in attack. He introduced Endrick in the 71st minute and the teenager could start here in place of Raphinha.
- Goalkeepers: Alisson, Bento, Ederson
- Defenders: Beraldo, Eder Militao, Gabriel, Marquinhos, Danilo, Yan Couto, Guilherme Arana, Wendell
- Midfielders: Andreas Pereira, Bruno Guimaraes, Douglas Luiz, Joao Gomes, Lucas Paqueta
- Forwards: Endrick, Evanilson, Gabriel Martinelli, Raphinha, Rodrygo, Savinho, Vinicius Junior.
- Predicted Lineup: Alisson, Danilo, Militao, Marquinhos, Aruna, Guimaraes, Gomes, Rodrygo, Paqueta, Vinicius Junior, Endrick
Paraguay Copa America Squad, Team News and Predicted Lineup
Paraguay has a clean bill of health following their game against Colombia. They lost the battle for midfield in their opening game and coach Daniel Garnero will look to make changes. Hernesto Caballero was hooked after 59 minutes for Damian Bobadilla and we expect he will enter the starting 11 here. Alex Arce was also disappointing and Adam Bareiro may get the nod instead.
- Goalkeepers: Carlos Coronel, Alfredo Aguilar, Rodrigo Morinigo
- Defenders: Gustavo Gomez, Junior Alonso, Fabian Balbuena, Omar Alderete, Ivan Ramirez, Matias Espinoza, Nestor Gimenez, Gustavo Velazquez
- Midfielders: Miguel Almiron, Mathias Villasanti, Richard Sanchez, Alejandro Romero Gamarra, Andres Cubas, Matias Rojas, Hernesto Caballero, Damian Bobadilla, Fabrizio Peralta
- Forwards: Derlis González, Angel Romero, Julio Enciso, Ramon Sosa, Adam Bareiro, Alex Arce
- Predicted Lineup: Morinigo, Velazquez, Balbuena, Alderete, Espinoza, Villasanti, Cubas, Bobadilla, Almiron, Enciso, Bareiro.
