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Toronto vs Cincinnati preview
FC Cincinnati will climb above Inter Miami at the top of the Eastern Conference should they defeat Toronto at BMO Field on May 25. They are just a point away from the top seeds with a game in hand.
With Miami not due to play until after full-time in Toronto, Cincy could pile the pressure onto Messi and co. should they take three points. Toronto sits fifth in the standings, five points clear of the Final Series play-off positions. A win for The Reds could see them climb as high as third should other results go in their favour.
Toronto vs Cincinnati Head-To-Head and Key Stats
Cincinnati is having an excellent season in the MLS. Head coach Pat Noonan guided them to the Supporters’ Shield last year after topping the Eastern Conference, before losing in the conference finals to Columbus Crew. They have carried over that form into 2024, losing just twice in the league with Noonan’s pressing brand of soccer.
Star-man Luciano Acosta has been in fine form, finding the net seven times and registering nine assists. The Argentinian has been the focal point of Cincinnati’s attack this season. He showed his class on May 18, contributing to all three goals in his side’s 3-1 victory over St. Louis.
The opening 25 minutes of that game was marred by a succession of fouls from St. Louis. Cincinnati ultimately made the visitors pay when Acosta was fouled in the penalty area by Celio Pompeu. The captain stepped up and slotted home to gain the lead in the 26th minute.
The hosts headed into halftime with the lion’s share of possession, though unable to threaten St. Louis’ goal consistently. They came flying out of the blocks in the second half with Yuya Kubo scoring just four minutes into the half. He ran onto Acosta’s smart through ball, striking into the roof of the net to give Cincy a two-goal cushion.
Five minutes later, Matt Miazga put the ball into his net to hand St. Louis a way back in. However, Noonan’s team kept up the pressure with the visitors rarely finding a way past the resolute defence. Acosta recorded his second assist of the game when he found Sergio Santos at the back post. He slotted into an empty net to put the game to bed.
Elsewhere, Toronto continued their strong season in the Canadian Classique. They put rivals CF Montreal to the sword in a 5-1 dismantling. Matty Longstaff opened the scoring early when he tapped home Tyrese Spicer’s cross in the 6th minute. Federico Bernadeschi doubled their lead six minutes later, smashing home Deybi Flores’ through ball.
By the 20th minute, Toronto were 3-0 up following Prince Osei Owusu’s close-range effort and the result was beyond doubt. Bernardeschi continued to shine and secured his hat-trick. He curled the ball past Jonathan Sirois before nestling home into the top left corner in the 58th and 59th minute, respectively. Sunisi Ibrahim got a consolation goal in the 67th minute and Toronto ran out deserved winners.
WINNER, GAGNANT ‼️ pic.twitter.com/DmFy2bbbmC
— Toronto FC (@TorontoFC) May 19, 2024
That result meant that The Reds broke their Canadian Classique drought, having lost in the previous five meetings. It also broke the record for the biggest defeat by either team in an MLS Canadian Classique game. They still have a Canadian Championship game to worry about midweek but can head into Saturday in a buoyant mood should they claim another victory.
These two sides met in September last year in the Supporters’ Shield. The 3-2 thriller saw Cincinnati claim their first silverware since joining the MLS in 2019. Cincinnati scored twice in the first 35 minutes and looked good value for a win early on. However, a five-minute double-salvo from Toronto FC legend Jonathan Osorio drew The Reds level.
Both sides had chances to snatch three points in a high-energy second half. Acosta was lively and narrowly missed from range in the 63rd minute. A frantic five minutes followed with Toronto forcing a duo of strong saves from keeper Luka Gavran.
Acosta continued to cause The Reds problems. After a magnificent solo drive, he played Aaron Boupendza in the centre of the box. The Gabonese striker tapped it home to regain the lead and claim the win for Cincinnati.
Much of the Cincy team who played in that historic win have remained at the club since, while Toronto has a slightly fresher starting 11. The likes of Michal Bradley, Themi Antonoglou and Latif Blessing have since moved on. Cincinnati will be without Brandon Vazquez. The forward helped his team win that day, scoring a brace, before securing a move to Monterrey at the start of this year.
Cincinnati holds bragging rights over Toronto. In their ten meetings in the MLS, Cincy has won six to Toronto’s four with no ties.
Toronto vs Cincinnati Prediction
Correct Score Prediction: Toronto 1-2 Cincinnati
Our MLS prediction is for Cincinnati to come out on top in Toronto. Our online sportsbook prices them as favourites at 13/10. This is likely to be a tightly contested battle between two teams coming off impressive wins. However, Cincinnati has been the strongest team in the nation defensively, conceding just 11 goals. Their strength at the back should be enough to come away with the win.
Despite their position in the standings, Cincinnati has not been the strongest scorer with 19 goals in 14 games. Only two teams in the top 9 in the East have scored fewer. Instead, they have relied on heavy pressing and a strong defence to keep teams out. Toronto has a leakier defence by that same metric with just two teams conceding more.
This fixture is likely to be a much tighter match than anticipated. While both teams have found form in front of the net in the past few weeks, continuing to score is difficult in the MLS. Cincinnati is yet to keep a clean sheet away from home in the MLS this season. Betting on Cincinnati to win and both teams to score is priced at 10/3.
A 2-1 win for Cincinnati is priced at 8/1. Their tendency for conceding away from home while still keeping the damage to a minimum means we see Noonan’s men edging Toronto out.
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The midweek game in the Canadian Championship will be a worry for Toronto. They had a heavy run of fixtures in May which will take them to five games in the last 14 days. Cincinnati’s strong defence and pacy frontline will look to pounce on any fatigue and catch them on the counter.
Toronto vs Cincinnati betting tips
A bet on Cincinnati to win priced at 13/10 looks very attractive. They have won their last six on the bounce and offer great value to extend that run in Toronto. They are also excellent on the road with a record of 5-1-1 this season when away.
The Reds are not out of it though, priced at 19/10. Our sportsbook does not see them as huge underdogs. It would be worth looking at the live betting markets during the game should Toronto look good value for at least a point.
A contest expected to be tightly contested by either side’s defence opens up the possibility of a draw. A tie is priced at 12/5 and with Cincinnati holding a game in hand over Inter Miami, they may look to take a point should things remain level late in the game. With the run of games being tough on legs, it is hard to see Toronto having enough to take three points. But they are certainly able to take Cincinnati to the line at home.
Luciano Acosta has recorded more assists than any other player in the MLS this season. Furthermore, the Argentinian leads the league in key passes with 51. With seven goal contributions in his last four games, take advantage of his purple patch. A bet on the midfielder to assist in the game seems obvious but it is worth noting that he has opened the scoring in three of Cincinnati’s last five. Betting on him to score first could prove worthwhile again at extended odds.
Toronto has one of the poorest disciplinary records in the league. They have racked up 40 yellow and three red cards in their 14 MLS games. Only D.C United has a worse record, opening up the option to bet on Toronto to pick up some cautions. With tired legs expected from their midweek game, we can expect some sloppy tackling and defensive errors. A bet on over 2.5 cards for the home team would go in line with their average of 2.8 per game in 2024.
Toronto Team News and Predicted Line-up
Shane O’Neill has been absent since early April after injuring his quadriceps. He is still not healthy and will not return in time for Saturday. Midfielder Brandon Servania will also miss out following a thigh injury. Jonathan Osorio and Kevin Long missed Toronto’s last two games with thigh injuries and are questionable for Saturday.
- Predicted Line-up: Sean Johnson, Mabika, Rosted, Gomis, Spicer, Coello, Flores, Bernardeschi, Longstaff, Insigne, and Owusu.
Cincinnati Team News and Predicted Line-up
Aaron Boupendza will not be available for selection after breaking his jaw in April and will still face a lengthy sit on the sideline. Deandre Yedlin has been nursing a hip injury, keeping him out for the last two contests. He is questionable to return in time for Saturday.
Alvas Powell has had a nagging hamstring injury, forcing him to miss the last two games. The veteran fullback has had limited minutes this season and will miss out again on Saturday. Otherwise, there are no new injury concerns for Cincy.
- Predicted Line-up: Celentano, Murphy, Miazga, Hagglund, Kubo, Bucha, Nwobondo, Orellano, Acosta, Santos, and Kelsy.
