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Peru vs Canada Preview
Copa America has already provided us with some scintillating moments in the first round of the group stage. Peru vs Canada is shaping up to be an important fixture as second in Group A is still up for grabs. It’s unlikely either team will catch the holders of Argentina, but a win for the debutants in Canada could help them progress to the tournament’s knockout stage.
The gulf in quality between Argentina and the rest of their group is fairly apparent, both on paper and when watching the teams in action. Peru, Canada, and Chile will all have entered the Copa America quietly, confident they could emerge from the group in second place. The game kicks off on Tuesday, June 25thm at 6:00 pm ET at Children’s Mercy Park.
Canada must look at this game as a must-win, and if Jesse Marsch’s men fall short in this one, they’ll be saying an early goodbye to the competition. So, the heat is definitely on.
Peru vs Canada Preview Head-To-Head and Key Stats
Unlike many teams in the competition, Peru and Canada have a thin rivalry. Their first and last game took place in September 2010, and this year’s game is in the lowest-capacity stadium in Copa America. The only player featured in that game who will be present tomorrow is Peru captain Paolo Guerrero, leading the line for his country at 40.
Although he didn’t find himself on the score sheet during the 2-0 win back in 2010, he will be eager to get himself onto a grand tally of 15 Copa America goals. This will put him at the top with Teodoro Fernández as Peru’s highest-ever goalscorer in the competition and just two behind Brazil’s Zizinho and Norberto Méndez.
Peru’s strength lies at the back, and they’ll be keen to keep up this 100% record against Canada. Although they go into this game with Canada as the favourites, they’ll be eyeing this game as the most winnable. Three points here will put them in contention for escaping Group A alongside the current champions.
Canada kicked off the tournament this year against Argentina. The current holders and World Cup winners looked the better side throughout, but they failed to take several golden opportunities. Canada failed to trouble Emi Martinez, but they could create several clear-cut chances. However, the quality of the Argentine players was enough to separate the sides with two brilliantly worked goals. The Canadians were sloppy at points, and the 2-0 scoreline could have been five or six on another day.
Peru faced Chile in their first game in the Clásico del Pacífico. While Chile started brighter and should have gone one up inside 15 minutes, Alexis Sanchez failed to take the chance. Peru looked the better side in the second 45 minutes, creating far more chances and looking the more likely. However, it finished 0-0 which was a fair result.
Peru vs Canada Predictions
Prediction: Peru 1-0 Canada
It’s tricky to pick a winner in game week two. With only three games in the group stage, many teams cannot their feet in time to save themselves from an early flight home. We suspect this could happen to Canada on Tuesday.
Peru’s 0-0 draw with Chile wasn’t one for the history books, but it did exhibit that the Peruvians have a solid unit at the back. In truth, we knew this going into the tournament. In the last Copa America tournament three years ago, the Peruvians made it difficult for any team to find the back of the net.
Even with optimism, we can’t see how Jessie Marsch could devise a plan to crack this solid unit. Canada’s lack of attacking prowess is their weakest link going into the Copa America 2024. Despite Canada remaining the favourite in our online sportsbook, we fancy Peru to cause an upset.
Lionel Messi’s post-match words will have instilled some faith in the Canadian squad. But what they have in athleticism is that they lack firepower in front of the goal, and this is likely to be their downfall. Peru isn’t firing on all cylinders, yet their attack may be marginally better than the Canadians’.
Jorge Fosati’s men will be confident they can come out of this one victorious. Still, it’s not an open-and-shut case by any means, unlike some other games, such as the US against Bolivia or Argentina vs Canada in the tournament opener.
Given the added incentive for Guerrero to equal the scoring record, he’s more likely to do it in this game than in any of the other group matches. It could also be his last chance if Canada wins, as this could put them in the ascendency heading into the final group match.
Peru vs Canada Betting Tips
With Canada coming up short against the competition favourites and Peru having a significant role to play in one of the most tepid games of the tournament thus far, navigating some of the Copa America betting markets has been a challenging task. We can’t see many goals in this game either way. Peru has a solid structure at the back, but they lack a forward threat. Canada faces similar problems at the top end of the pitch, failing to take several chances against the Argentines.
The sportsbooks might favour Canada, but this is hardly shaping up to be a goal fest. In tight games, looking at betting on the over/under market is usually worthwhile. Under 2.5 goals at -167 might not sound like the best odds, but whichever way this game goes, we think there’s likely to be one goal in it. Both teams to score are also -128, which is not a market of particular value.
Betting on Canada to win this game is a risk, but they did look bright at times against Argentina. A defeat guarantees their shortest possible stay in the competition, which would be a hard way to end a debut. However, most fans knew that Canada was going to struggle to get out of the group stage. Any bets to win Copa America were wishful, to say the least.
Of all the odds we have looked at for this game, the 1-0 bet is a decent punt either way. Canada to win 1-0 is -160, and Peru to win by the same scoreline is +125 on the moneyline markets. We know how difficult it can be to pick a correct score. Still, if any game in the Copa America warrants a 1-0, it’s this one. Even with both teams desperate to win, they don’t have the defensive frailties or attacking might to put that much of a dent in each other. So we’d say a trivial amount of goals is the recipe for a winning wager, whichever team you pick.
Battled hard. Heads held high as our Copa América journey continues. ⏭️#CANMNT #NoFearAllFight #SansPeurAvecCourage pic.twitter.com/Kn6bVPBoij
— CANMNT (@CANMNT_Official) June 21, 2024
Peru Team News & Lineups
The Peruvians will go into this one with a full clip upfront. This should be enough to see them through. Their biggest loss will be Luis Advincula, as the Peruvian veteran will be out with an Achilles injury he picked up in the last game.
While this will be a blow to the team, given the level-headedness and big tournament experience he brings to the table, they should have enough to get them over the line in a tight game. We can’t see any significant changes to the Peruvian lineup other than this. The back line will probably consist of Araujo, Zambrano, and Callens, with Gallese holding the fort between the sticks.
Although Advincula will be a notable absentee, we can’t see Fossati deviating too much away from the 3-5-2 formation they used in their opening game, despite Guerrero being so close to breaking the Peruvian goal-scoring record, seeing the 40-year-old start the game would be a surprise. Jorge opted for the younger pairing of Gianluca Lapadula and Edison Flores to lead the line. It’s hard to see a change, but Guerrero could be the man to fire them to glory off the bench.
Canada Team News & Lineups
We imagine Jessie Marsch will avoid making too many changes after the Argentina game. While they were ultimately outclassed by the reigning champions, there were still a few small glimmers of hope to take from the game. If they can continue to create chances, surely one of them will find the back of the net.
Marsch won’t hold back and this approach is the best given the crop of players he has to work with. Captain Alphonso Davies is by far the standout player on this side. Despite the left-back only being 23 years of age, the Canadian national side has been built around him for years. Live betting on Davies to get an assist or goal could be a profitable wager this week.
Davies will probably join Johnston, Bombito, and Cornelius to form the back line, with Crepeau in goal. The conventional 4-4-2 setup should see Buchanan, Kone, Eustaquio, and Millar line up in midfield, with Jonathan David and Cyle Larin leading the way up top. David is a capable talent, so while it might seem harsh to say Canada doesn’t have enough going forward, their combined attacking prowess right across midfield and attack is their main issue.
