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Alex Perez vs Tatsuro Taira Preview
Flyweight action takes centre stage at the UFC Apex on Saturday when Tatsuro Taira puts his undefeated streak on the line against Alex Perez. The main card starts at 8:00 pm and we have 13 fights to enjoy across the evening.
Taira enters this fight with a perfect 15-0 record, winning his first five UFC fights easily. The Japanese fighter is ranked 12 in the division and looks certain to challenge for the belt sooner rather than later. In his way this week is the American Alex Perez. Perez comes in off a huge knockout victory over Matheus Nicolau and looks to stop the 125lb hype train.
Alex Perez vs Tatsuro Taira Head-To-Head and Key Stats
Alex Perez caught the eye of the UFC in 2017 after appearing in Dana White’s Contender Series. The American defeated Kevin Gray via anaconda choke in the first round and earned a spot on the UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Ortega card in December of that year. He secured another anaconda choke victory, defeating Carls John de Tomas in the second round.
Perez continued to impress in the UFC, going on a 6-1 run. He scored back-to-back performance of the night bonuses with his wins over Jordan Espinosa and Jussier Formiga. The former regional flyweight champion showed his finishing prowess in that run with two KO/TKO victories and another submission win.
His impressive performances earned him a title shot against Deiveson Figueiredo at UFC 255. However, the jump in competition was too early, and Figueiredo submitted the challenger in the first round. This began a three-fight slide for Perez. The first loss came 20 months after his title bout defeat. Alexandre Pantoja tapped out the American in a title eliminator, handing him consecutive first-round submission losses.
Another lengthy layoff followed before Perez faced British wonder kid Muhammad Mokaev at UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev in March 2024. The undefeated Englishman won by a unanimous decision and it looked like his time in the UFC was ending.
However, he faced a quick turnaround when he stepped in to replace the injured Manel Kape at UFC Fight Vegas 91. Just seven weeks after his last fight, Perez stepped into the cage against Matheus Nicolau. He dominated the first round, forcing Nicolau back with smart boxing. The second round was much the same and by the midway point, Perez had gained full control of the fight. With Nicolau against the cage, the American unleashed a vicious right hook, knocking him out cold. His three-fight slide was over spectacularly, and he earned the third performance of the night bonus of his career.
Tatsuro Taira has been on a tear since joining the UFC in 2022. The young Japanese flyweight is unbeaten in his career, with three finishes from five in the UFC. His first finish came in his second fight. Taira sank in an armbar on C.J. Vergara, forcing a tap in the second round, despite Vergara having a four-pound advantage after missing weight. The 24-year-old won his first performance of the night bonus for his efforts.
He claimed his second submission win in February 2023 when he tapped out Jesús Santos Aguilar in the first round. Taira expertly pulled Aguilar into his guard before tying him up in a triangle armbar. He claimed his second performance of the night bonus in as many fights.
A unanimous decision win over Edgar Chairez followed in July before his most recent fight in December 2023. Taira introduced the UFC to his power. He controlled Carlos Hernandez on the ground for the first round but took just 55 seconds to finish him on his feet in the second. A nasty right hook stunned the Mexican and Taira smelled blood. He pounced on Hernandez with a barrage of punches, knocking him down and finishing with ground and pound for the TKO victory.
Standing at 5’7”, Taira is a rangy puncher in the flyweight division with a 70” reach. His grappling has been impeccable in the UFC and he has shown how he can mix things up with his striking in his last fight. Alex Perez gives up five inches in reach despite being just an inch shorter than his opponent. The American has excellent boxing and has proven his power. He is also a strong grappler, boasting seven submission victories in his career.
Alex Perez vs Tatsuro Taira Prediction
Fight Prediction: Taira by submission
The deciding factor in this bout will simply come down to timing. Perez enters his third fight in just 15 weeks on Saturday. Although he could carry that momentum into the Apex, that quick turnaround has left him little recovery time. Taira enters much fresher and has gone from strength to strength in his two years in the UFC. Our MMA prediction is a Taira win via submission.
However, this is still a very tricky fight. Taira enters as the odds-on favourite with our online sportsbook but has never faced a fighter as experienced as Perez. Taira’s strengths lie in his grappling, but Perez has shown excellent takedown defence in his career. He has an 82% takedown defence record and has also shown his submission threat on seven occasions. However, he demonstrated weaknesses when tying up with strong Jiu-Jitsu grapplers and has two submission losses in his last four fights.
Despite Taira’s power, Perez has avoided being finished by KO/TKO in nearly six years. Taira can go one better by never getting knocked down in his career. We do not see this ending in a KO. However, both fighters have the tools to end the contest in an instant. Their most recent fights ended in KO/TKO victories, and they will respect each other’s power in the early exchanges.
The opening round will be a test for the range. Both men like to fight on the front foot. Perez’s KO victory in his most recent bout came from keeping his opponent tight to the cage. He will look to build on that. However, do not ignore Taira’s range advantage. Perez will also try to keep out of takedown range. This means Taira is likely to win the battle for range and push the pace.
Both fighters are untested in championship rounds in the UFC. Neither has fought past the third round, though Perez has one five-rounder on his resume from his days in TPF. However, that was nine years ago. If this fight drags on into the championship rounds, it will become a test of stamina. If Perez can outlast Taira’s grappling, the pendulum will probably swing in his favour.
Alex Perez vs Tatsuro Taira Betting Picks
A bet on Taira to win is worth 8/15. The Japanese fighter is fancied to carry on his 15-fight win streak and 8/15 are decent odds for a fighter with a zero in the L column. Betting on the fight outcome will extend those odds further. Going along with our prediction, we think a bet on Taira to win by submission will offer strong returns.
We will see a less aggressive Taira than usual, with this being the toughest test of his career so far. The first round will be a tune-up for the remaining rounds as the Japanese fighter finds his range. He was taken to a decision by a weaker fighter in his three-rounder with Edgar Chairez. The over/under 2.5 rounds wager is worth examining as Perez will take him past that. Bet on the over at 7/10.
Perez has the quality to win this fight despite being the underdog in the MMA betting. He has fought and beaten more experienced fighters than Taira in his career. If he can drag Taira past three rounds, he can use that experience. Live betting on a Perez win if the fight enters the championship rounds could prove worthwhile.
New customers can sign up and wager using our welcome bonus. We will match your first deposit in bonus funds up to $500. You can then wager with reduced risk when using our online sportsbook.
Alex Perez vs Tatsuro Taira Outcome
This fight is closer than the UFC odds indicate. Taira has never had a test like this and even with 15 pro fights, he is still in the infancy of his career. Perez has fought champions at flyweight. However, Taira is on a tear and his ceiling is high. This test has come at a perfect time in his career. With Perez on a quick turnaround between fights, his opponent will take advantage.
Taira’s grappling is excellent, and he is strong enough to pull Perez down to the mat even with his strong takedown defence. He will mix up his striking to find openings for takedowns. Once he gets Perez on the mat, he has a multitude of tools to finish the fight. The starlet will try to get Perez out of there in four rounds and has proven he can do so already in his young career.
Alex Perez vs Tatsuro Taira Full Fight Card
Main Card
- Alex Perez vs. Tatsuro Taira; Flyweight
- Ikram Aliskerov vs. Antonio Trocoli; Middleweight
- Timmy Cuamba vs. Lucas Almeida; Featherweight
- Douglas Silva de Andrade vs. Miles Johns; Bantamweight
- Asu Almabayev vs. Jose Johnson; Flyweight
- Brady Hiestand vs. Garrett Armfield; Bantamweight
Preliminary Card
- Tagir Ulanbekov vs. Joshua Van; Flyweight
- Jimmy Flick vs. Nate Maness; Flyweight
- Josh Quinlan vs. Adam Fugitt; Welterweight
- Carli Judice vs. Gabriella Fernandes; Women’s Flyweight
- Jeka Saragih vs. Weston Wilson; Featherweight
- Josefine Knutsson vs. Julia Polastri; Women’s strawweight
- Melquizael Costa vs. Shayilan Nuerdanbieke; Featherweight
