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Brad Katona vs Jesse Butler Preview
Brad Katona returns to the octagon on Saturday, looking to bounce back from his unanimous decision loss in January. The two-time ‘The Ultimate Fighter’ winner will face Jesse Butler in bantamweight action at the KFC Yum! Center, Louisville, Kentucky. Butler will also attempt to recover from a loss following his knockout defeat at the hands of Jim Miller in June 2023. The Fight Night early prelims are scheduled to begin at 4 pm.
Katona became the first-ever fighter to win TUF twice when he defeated former teammate Cody Gibson in the tournament final at UFC 292. The Winnipeg-born fighter is used to the spotlight, but can’t afford another loss this weekend. Katona and Butler will fancy their chances of moving up the bantamweight division.
Brad Katona vs Jesse Butler Head-To-Head and Key Stats
Katona enters his seventh fight in the UFC with the experience advantage. The bantamweight has 19 professional fights to Butler’s 17. Katona is no stranger to the bright lights of the UFC with six fights and a 3-3 record. However, his opponent is adjusting, having only competed once at this level.
Katona’s second run in the promotion came following his TUF 31 triumph. After fighting strongly throughout the competition, Katona faced former teammates in the semifinals and final. He battled to a split-decision victory over Timur Valiev in the semis before meeting Gibson.
‘Superman’ re-announced himself to MMA fans by securing a unanimous decision victory and a Fight of the Night bonus in the tournament finale at UFC 292. The two 135lbers stood toe-to-toe for three rounds with just three takedown attempts. Katona out-struck the veteran fighter 173 strikes to 169 to claim the TUF trophy and an exclusive contract.
His most recent fight came when he met Garett Armfield at UFC 297 in January. Katona lost controversially via a unanimous decision. He was out-struck in all three rounds by the 27-year-old. However, Superman’s dominance on the ground led many to believe he had done enough to win the fight.
Butler made his UFC debut last summer, stepping into the octagon across from the legendary Jim Miller. It was a nightmare start for the Louisiana native. Miller landed a left hook after 23 seconds, following up with an uppercut. Butler was out cold, and the fight was over before many had even taken to their seats. Losses like this don’t just hurt, they make or break inexperienced fighters. Will Butler be able to shrug off this bitter defeat?
Standing at 5’6” with a 65” reach, Katona has fast hands and likes to fight inside the pocket, looking for quick takedowns. His pedigree would worry any fighter, being a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and Shotokan karate. He is just as adept on the ground as on his feet. His stamina will make him a threat in the later rounds, especially since he is the more experienced UFC fighter. Superman will push the pace and mix up his striking with wrestling.
Butler is big for a bantamweight standing at 5’10” with a 73.5” reach. He has fought as high as welterweight, and this will be his first bantamweight bout. An 8.5” reach advantage will help him find the distance. If he gets past the first minute, he should relax and find his footing in the UFC. His size can help frustrate Katona, and he will be a threat on the ground with eight submission victories.
Brad Katona vs Jesse Butler Prediction
Katona vs Butler fight prediction: Katona to win by unanimous decision
Neither of these fighters enters with strong knockout records with one apiece. Butler is the stronger finisher with nine (8 sub, 1 TKO) to Katona’s four (3 sub, 1 TKO). However, Katona’s resilient chin and excellent ground defence will nullify that. Nobody has ever finished the Canadian in his MMA career. Though stylistically they are similar, Katona’s superior talent will see him over the line. This should be Superman’s easiest fight in the UFC. Our MMA prediction is for Katona to bounce back with a UD win in Louisville.
Butler’s cut is a drastic move. He is shedding 20lbs from his lightweight fight with Miller. There is a question of whether the Louisiana native will make weight. Should he hit the 135.5lb limit, he will lose power even with a post-scales bulk. He will also lose his stamina, which Katona has in buckets. Butler’s tools will be depleted here, which is bad news for a fighter who already lacks punching power.
Let’s get this show on the road 👊🏻 #FightWeek#UFCLouisville #UFC #Superman pic.twitter.com/B8tgcEAihq
— Brad Katona (@bradkatona) June 3, 2024
Katona has been a master of grinding out UD wins. His three wins in the UFC have come from the judges’ scorecards. We expect him to tire out Butler with his speed and stamina, secure the third round, and win another decision.
If you want to bet on the UFC prelims, you need to consider there are a lot of unknowns. On paper, Butler should struggle against a more seasoned fighter. However, as we saw in Butler’s first fight, strange things can happen in the UFC. A first-round knockout this week seems unlikely. But, it could be worth waiting until the fight begins before placing a wager. Live betting on this UFC fight could help you avoid a dud wager, especially if one of the fighters fails to make the weight.
Brad Katona vs Jesse Butler Betting Picks
A bet on Brad Katona to win offers little value as an overwhelming -556 favourite. That line is still moving and is likely to move further in favour of the Canadian following the weigh-ins. A bet on him to win via unanimous decision is the best way to back the TUF champion and extend the odds.
It is hard to foresee a finish in this fight. However, Katona is the most likely to end the fight early, despite Butler’s superior submission record. The Canadian can expose his opponent’s depleted gas tank in the final round. His ability to stay fresh and fast throughout fights is his strongest asset. This will give him easier openings when looking for submission attempts.
If you are determined to bet on this UFC event, look at the method of victory. A longshot bet on Katona to win via submission in the third round is not unreasonable. There is no doubt the American fighter is the underdog in this bout. Betting any amount on an upset seems unlikely and not worth the risk.
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Brad Katona vs Jesse Butler Outcome
Brad Katona’s experience is too much for Butler to compete with. The American was thrown to the wolves in his first UFC bout and this fight will be much the same. As with any MMA fight, Butler has a puncher’s chance, but his lack of power shows little threat. Expect Katona to pressure his opponent, scoring inside the pocket before attempting takedowns. A tired Butler will attempt takedowns as respite. Superman will dominate in the latter exchanges on the feet and ground.
Butler is not ready for the level of fighters the UFC boasts. He is a natural featherweight, and this cut looks ill-informed. A win is vital for both fighters with a two-fight slide likely proving to be the last time either will compete in the UFC. However, we expect Katona to continue his pursuit of a place in the bantamweight rankings with a dominant victory.
Brad Katona vs Jesse Butler Full Fight Card
Main Card
- Jared Cannonier vs. Nassourdine Imavov; Middleweight
- Dustin Jacoby vs. Dominick Reyes; Light Heavyweight
- Raul Rosas Jr. vs. Ricky Turcios; Bantamweight
- Brunno Ferreira vs. Dustin Stoltzfus; Middleweight
- Julian Marquez vs. Zach Reese; Middleweight
- Miguel Baeza vs. Puna Soriano; Welterweight
Preliminary Card
- Ludovit Klein vs. Thiago Moises; Lightweight
- Carlos Prates vs. Charlie Radtke; Welterweight
- Jesse Butler vs. Brad Katona; Bantamweight
- Montana De La Rosa vs. Andrea Lee; Women’s Flyweight
- John Castaneda vs. Daniel Marcos; Bantamweight
- Denise Gomes vs. Eduarda Moura; Women’s Strawweight
- Taylor Lapilus vs. Cody Stamann; Bantamweight
- Rayanne Amanda vs. Puja Tomar; Women’s Strawweight
